- Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 4.1 points (3.5 per cent) to 111.7 in the week to 24 April. Confidence is down 0.1 per cent over the year and below the average of 112.1 since 2014.
- Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week.
What does it all mean?
Consumer confidence has remained decidedly weak in recent months. In fact confidence levels have now fallen for five out of the past six weeks and are now down on levels of a year ago. The Aussie dollar is holding near US78 cents; interest rates are stable; employment is strong and petrol prices are low. However the deciding factor for the subdued confidence levels is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and possible early election.
The good news is that in a week’s time the Federal Budget measures and changes to policy will be revealed and businesses and households will have one less thing to worry about. However, we would expect that the potential 2 July Federal election will dampen confidence levels in the next few months. Importantly the fundamentals across the economy are sound.
What do the figures show?
- The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 4.1 points (3.5 per cent) to 111.7 in the week to April 24. Confidence is down 0.1 per cent over the year and below the average of 112.1 since 2014. Four of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +7 to +4;
- The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +26 to +28;
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from +1 to -6;
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +9 to +3;
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +36 points to +30 points.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.